“Tarique Rahman is the man pulling all the strings,” declared Shamsuzzaman Dudu, Vice Chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), while heaping praise on the party’s acting chairperson. According to Dudu, Rahman was the brain behind the student-led uprising in July that swept the Awami League government out of power. His words leave no room for doubt: “If someone needs this explained to them, then there’s a bit of a problem.” Dudu also credited Rahman’s strategic brilliance for keeping the BNP afloat despite Sheikh Hasina’s relentless 16-year campaign to wipe the party off the political map.

This statement came two months after the regime change. Interesting.

Our investigation takes a closer look at what’s brewing in Bangladesh post-regime change, especially the sharp rise of anti-India sentiment on the ground and across social media. Once a neighbour known for its friendly ties with India, Bangladesh is now showing signs of shifting gears.

This report analyses the timeline, activities, and methods driving this transformation.

We’ll explore how the Yunus-led Interim government has been using anti-India sentiment as a rallying cry to tighten its grip on power. But that’s not the whole story. The growing influence of radical Islamist groups—such as Jamaat-e-Islami, Hefazat-e-Islam, Hizb ut Tahreer and Islami Andolan Bangladesh—is reshaping the secular identity Bangladesh has upheld since its independence in 1971. These groups are not just flexing their muscles locally; they’re also drawing Bangladesh’s youth closer to global terror networks, raising red flags for India, especially in its border states.

August 2024

August flooding in several districts of eastern Bangladesh, triggered by heavy monsoon rains, led to allegations that the disaster was exacerbated by India. Claims circulating in Bangladesh and on social media suggested that the flooding was “artificial,” caused by India opening dams and barrages on rivers near the shared border.

Surrounding this backdrop, multiple viral videos and photos were shared claiming that India intentionally released water from the Dumbur Dam, leading to severe flooding in Bangladesh.

Fact Check:

False Attribution of Videos: Videos circulating on social media purportedly showing the Dumbur Dam releasing water were actually of the Srisailam Dam in Telangana, India. Geolocation and visual comparisons confirmed this misidentification.

Expert Insight: Professor Ainun Nishat (told DW Fact Check team), a river and water management expert in Dhaka, emphasized that Bangladesh’s vulnerability to flooding is due to its deltaic geography and inadequate maintenance of flood embankments, rather than actions by neighboring countries.

Official Statement from India: The Ministry of External Affairs clarified that the viral news was factually incorrect. The statement pointed out:

• The flood in Bangladesh is primarily due to waters from these large catchments downstream of the dam.
• The Dumbur dam is located quite far from the border – over 1200 Km upstream of Bangladesh.
• Heavy rainfall has been continuing since 21 August in the whole of Tripura & adjoining districts of Bangladesh. In the event of heavy inflow, automatic releases have been observed.
• Amarpur station is part of a bilateral protocol under which India is transmitting real-time flood data to Bangladesh.
• Floods on the common rivers between India & Bangladesh are a shared problem inflicting suffering on people on both sides and require close cooperation towards resolving them.
• As two countries sharing 54 common cross-border rivers, river water cooperation is an important part of our bilateral engagement. We remain committed to resolving issues and mutual concerns in water resources and river water management through bilateral consultations and technical discussions.

In addition to the false claims, Bangladeshi social media accounts also utilized memes and satirical imagery to blame India for the floods. Among those amplifying this narrative was Bangladeshi political influencer Pinaki Bhattacharya, who actively spread such claims through his Twitter handle.

Interestingly, our investigation uncovered several accounts created in August 2024 that were exclusively focused on sharing tweets with the hashtag #FloodInBDForIndia and pushing narratives blaming India for the floods. These accounts, including profiles named Kayes Khan, Ayesiuu Tulii, Suayeb, FATEMA SHEIKH, SK, and Tasmim Rahman, became active in August and ceased activity shortly afterward. This pattern suggests that these accounts were specifically created to amplify the hashtag and propagate the anti-India narrative.

September 2024 

1. Reports surfaced about Bangladeshi student leaders meeting ISI and international handlers:

In September, reports emerged revealing that coordinators of a Bangladeshi students’ movement had met with ISI and U.S. handlers in Pakistan, Dubai, and Doha between April and September 2023. The alleged “conspiracy” to recruit a select group of students with the aim of destabilizing the Sheikh Hasina regime reportedly began in April 2023, when a student—whose identity is being withheld for security reasons—visited Pakistan and held discussions with an officer from the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

One prominent figure linked to this movement is Mohammad Mahfuz Alam, who was appointed as a special assistant to interim government Chief Adviser Mohammad Yunus on August 28. In addition to Alam, several other students leading the movement were found to have Jamaat e Islami-affiliated madrassah backgrounds before enrolling in various colleges and universities, particularly in Dhaka and across the country.

1. Pro-Pakistan Narratives

The anti-India sentiment fuelling has been majorly oiled by Pakistan. On September 11, the Nawab Salimullah Academy held a discussion at the National Press Club to commemorate Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s 76th death anniversary. During the event, Mohammad Shamsuddin, convener of Nagarik Parishad, made controversial statements, asserting: “We gained our first independence as a Muslim country in 1947. It is because of Quaid-e-Azam (great leader) that we have Bangladesh today. Had they not come to this land in 1947, no industries would have been established here.”

Shamsuddin further alleged: “Before Operation Searchlight, India attacked the Urdu-speaking people in our region, aiming to eliminate them and take control of Bangladesh. We owe gratitude to the ancestors of the Urdu-speaking community in Bangladesh who helped establish industries and factories here.”

Faruk Hasan, member secretary of a faction of the Gono Odhikar Parishad and known for his involvement in the India Out and Boycott Indian Products campaigns, dismissed the Awami League’s claims about India’s role in Bangladesh’s independence. He remarked: “This is completely false. India only wanted Bangladesh to be separated from Pakistan.”

Notable attendees at the event included:

Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan to Dhaka Kamran Dhangal, Mohammad Shamsuddin and Faruk Hasan, all of whom have been linked to narratives critical of India’s role in Bangladesh’s history.

Nagorik Parishad Convener

Mohammad Shamsuddin is the convener of Nagarik Parishad, a political platform in Bangladesh. He is known for his controversial and revisionist narratives regarding the history of Bangladesh, often focusing on undermining India’s role in the country’s liberation.

He has consistently promoted strict anti-India narratives through the platform’s website, nagorikparishad.blogspot. In a 2017 article, the group expressed outrage over then Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Bangladesh. The Citizens’ Council organized a black flag demonstration and a human chain to protest against her arrival. The protest, planned for October 22, 2017, at 4 pm in front of the National Press Club, was led by Shamsuddin. However, the demonstration was ultimately thwarted by police.

1. Jamaat’s Global Outreach:

In Bangladesh, the Islamist political party Jamaat-e-Islami, led by Ameer Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, has been engaging with international organizations and foreign dignitaries to promote its agenda. Recently, Dr. Rahman met with Chinese Ambassador HE Yao Wen as part of the party’s global outreach efforts.

1. Pressuring Govt to revoke its ban:

Extremist group Hizb ut Tahrir has called on Bangladesh’s interim government to revoke the ban imposed on it by ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s administration in 2009. The demand comes amid the release of several terrorist leaders and radicals in the country. Hizb ut Tahrir leader Imtiaz Selim Monday said the government should replicate the model that it applied for lifting the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami.

Although the government CA press wing clarified that they have no purpose of uplifting the ban on Hizb ut-Tahrir and  Ansarullah Bangla Team, in the coming months we saw the founder of this terrorist group becoming part of Interim government cabinet member.

Irony.

October 2024

In the month of October, Bangladesh’s interim government has appointed Mushfiqul Fazal Ansarey, a US-based journalist-activist known for his alleged anti-India stance and long-standing campaign against ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina, as an ambassador to one of its foreign missions. Ansarey, a polarizing figure, returned to Bangladesh on September 12 after nearly a decade in self-imposed exile.

Ansarey’s appointment has raised eyebrows, particularly as it coincided with the cancellation of contractual appointments of Bangladesh’s ambassadors to the United States, Russia, and the UAE. Notably, Ansarey drew attention earlier this year during a US State Department press briefing in March, where he referenced the arrest of former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal.

For a deeper look into Ansarey’s links with the BNP, an extensive report is available on DFRAC.

November 2024

1. Jamaat-e-Islami’s Diplomatic Maneuvers

Jamaat-e-Islami has been engaging in activities akin to diplomatic efforts despite holding no official governmental power. On Monday, a three-member delegation led by Singapore’s Non-Resident High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Derek Loh, met with Jamaat-e-Islami leaders at their office in Dhaka. The meeting was attended by prominent figures, including Acting Ameer and former lawmaker Professor Mujibur Rahman, Nayeb-e-Ameer Dr. Syed Abdullah Md. Taher, Secretary General Professor Mia Golam Parwar, and Assistant Secretary General Advocate Ehasanul Mahbub Jubayer.

Discussions during the meeting reportedly focused on issues concerning the mutual interests of Bangladesh and Singapore.

1. Disrespecting Indian Flag by University students:

Meanwhile, on November 29, another troubling incident occurred when an image of the Indian national flag was placed on the ground at the entrance of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) in Dhaka. According to a report by The Dhaka Times24, similar cases were reported at other universities, including Rajshahi University of Science and Technology, Noakhali Science and Technology University, and Dhaka University. While the report did not specify who was responsible for placing the flag on the ground or their motivations, the recurrence of such incidents has sparked concerns.

The Chittagong-based Islamist outfit Hefazat-e-Islam called for a ban on the International Society for Krishna Consciousness or ISKCON where the group was heard chanting violent slogans, such as “Catch one ISKCON, then slaughter,” during a rally in Chattogram in November 9, 2025.

December 2024

1. Surma News Group: Akhand Bangladesh Movement:

Surma News, a UK-based media group aligned with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has been an active participant in several anti-India campaigns, including the ‘Boycott India’ movement and the ‘India Out’ initiative. Recently, with the change in government in Bangladesh, the media group has been organizing protests outside the Indian High Commission in London and advocating for the “Akhand Bangladesh Movement.” This movement claims territorial expansion of Bangladesh to include the Indian states of West Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha.

• Ruhul Kabir Rizvi:

In a related development, BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi revived the ‘Boycott India’ campaign in December 2024. During a symbolic protest, Rizvi burned his wife’s saree to call attention to his campaign, which he had been active part in March 2024 when the boycott Indian products campaign was initiated by BNP.

Rizvi has also accused India of undermining democracy in Bangladesh, although these claims have been widely disputed and rejected.

On December 7, 2024, just ahead of Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s official visit to Dhaka, a BNP delegation submitted a memorandum to the Indian High Commission in Dhaka. The delegation, which included key BNP leaders such as Central Jubo Dal President Monayem Munna, General Secretary Nurul Islam Nayan, and others, raised concerns over anti-Bangladesh incidents in India. These included allegations related to the BNP’s mission in Agartala and accusations of flag desecration.

• Hizb-ut-Tahrir Bangladesh
  Bangladesh’s interim government has appointed Nasimul Gani, a founder of Hizb-ut-Tahrir Bangladesh, as home secretary. Gani previously served BNP leader Jamir Uddin Sircar. Mahfuz Alam, close to chief adviser Muhammad Yunus, is also a HuT member. HuT and other groups allegedly influenced the student movement that ousted PM Sheikh Hasina in August.

The alarming radicalization of the administration, compounded with the Bangladesh EC’s proposal to remove the principles of secularism, socialism, and nationalism, shows how the coming days can be extremely worrying. Efforts to rewrite history by replacing ‘Bangabandhu’ Sheikh Mujibur Rahman with Ziaur Rahman as the declarer of independence, signals an ideological shift against India’s interests.

January 2025

In January 2025, Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami has been actively participating in diplomatic discussions under the guise of development-oriented meetings. The party’s Ameer held meetings with notable figures, including the Bhutanese envoy, EU Ambassador Michael Miller, Brazilian Ambassador, and Malaysian High Commissioner Mohammad Suhada Osman.

Conclusion:

The developments in Bangladesh over the past year reflect a nation grappling with a volatile mix of political turbulence, historical revisionism, and shifting alliances. The regime change in Dhaka has not only emboldened anti-India rhetoric but also provided a platform for the resurgence of radical ideologies, strategic misinformation campaigns, and heightened regional instability.

Tarique Rahman’s behind-the-scenes orchestration of the BNP’s agenda and the calculated outreach by Jamaat-e-Islami to international stakeholders underscore a broader strategy: the consolidation of power by appealing to anti-India sentiments, leveraging populism, and building transnational networks.

As 2025 unfolds, the political, social, and diplomatic trajectory of Bangladesh will remain a crucial factor in shaping South Asia’s stability. Whether Bangladesh can navigate this period of turbulence without compromising its foundational values and regional partnerships will be a test not only of its political resilience but also of South Asia’s collective future.